A new national CNN/ORC poll made headlines Tuesday morning. This poll gives GOP nominee Donald Trump a marginal 1-point lead over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton among likely voters, and 2 points in a four-way contest including Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. …
Interestingly, when asked who will win the election, 59 percent of respondents said Clinton, compared to only 34 percent who thought that Trump would win. This is striking, given that the very same survey has Trump ahead in the vote intention question.
Pollsters rarely include the expectation question in their surveys. This is unfortunate, given that people’s aggregated answers are among the most accurate methods available for predicting election outcomes. CONT.
Andreas Graefe (PollyVote.com), The Hill
Trying to be objective, who do you think will win the election?
Clinton 59%
Trump 34%
(CNN/ORC, RV, 9/1-4)
Details: https://t.co/S6rQdpk3T5— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 6, 2016