Last Friday, I wrote an article entitled “Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week.” Well, it’s been a week — actually eight days — since that was published. So: Should Democrats panic? The verdict is … I don’t know. CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win
Here at FiveThirtyEight, our favorite election-related chart is what we officially call the “winding path to 270 electoral votes” and unofficially call the snake. Designed by my colleague Aaron Bycoffe, it lines the states up from most favorable for Hillary Clinton (Hawaii, Maryland) to best for Donald Trump (Wyoming, Alabama) […] Read more »
Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania
With her polling lead slipping, Hillary Clinton still has Pennsylvania as a firewall — for now. David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research who runs PredictWise, an online forecasting model that relies on betting markets, explained the primacy of Pennsylvania for Mrs. Clinton’s election chances during an interview this week. […] Read more »
What AP learned about using online surveys to measure support for presidential candidates
… The AP earlier this year commissioned an experiment to see if an online, probability-based survey could estimate candidate support among both advance and Election Day voters more accurately than the combined exit poll of Election Day voters and telephone poll of advance voters. That’s the dual, and increasingly costly, […] Read more »
As Clinton-Trump Race Tightens, Here’s How Forecast Models Differ
Over the past three weeks, Hillary Clinton’s chances to win the presidency have fallen. Her lead over Donald J. Trump has shrunk to between one and four percentage points nationwide, depending on which polls you count, and which candidates are included. … In The Upshot’s model, Mrs. Clinton’s chances to […] Read more »
The Fundamentals: Where Are We in This Strange Race for President?
Every presidential election is different, but nobody’s going to tell us that this one isn’t notably different from any other in the modern period. It’s not just that the two major-party candidates are so disliked and unpopular with much of the public. While Donald Trump’s numbers are no better and […] Read more »