Over the past three weeks, Hillary Clinton’s chances to win the presidency have fallen. Her lead over Donald J. Trump has shrunk to between one and four percentage points nationwide, depending on which polls you count, and which candidates are included. …
In The Upshot’s model, Mrs. Clinton’s chances to win the presidency stand at 75 percent. Mr. Trump, in just three weeks, has more than doubled his likelihood of becoming president. But his odds remain below those of Mrs. Clinton.
Of course, The Upshot is not the only organization with a forecasting model. CONT.
Josh Katz, New York Times