As we await the second debate, it’s obvious that Hillary Clinton got a bounce from the first debate and has re-established a clear lead in the presidential race. … She has arrested her September decline and has grabbed a lead that suggests she could match or even exceed Barack Obama’s […] Read more »
When You Hear the Margin of Error Is Plus or Minus 3 Percent, Think 7 Instead
As anyone who follows election polling can tell you, when you survey 1,000 people, the margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points. This roughly means that 95 percent of the time, the survey estimate should be within three percentage points of the true answer. If 54 percent […] Read more »
Media hype aside, Clinton still has the edge in this race
Seven weeks ago, I wrote that “Donald Trump needs a miracle” to win in November. Now, with only six weeks until that election, Trump has proven to be surprisingly resilient — but he remains a decided underdog. While there are plenty of high-profile Republican defectors who refuse to support Trump, […] Read more »
Why Are the Different Presidential Forecasts So Far Apart?
Hillary Clinton currently has a 71 percent chance of winning the presidency, according to The Upshot’s forecasting model. This is down from 90 percent last month, but higher than some other models we’re tracking, which put the odds between 58 percent and 85 percent. Part of the discrepancy comes from […] Read more »
Where The Race Stands Heading Into The First Debate
Whatever arguments we’ve had about the polls this week will soon be swamped by the reaction to Monday’s presidential debate. As a rough guide, I’d expect us to have some initial sense of how the debate has moved the numbers by Thursday or Friday based on quick-turnaround polls, and a […] Read more »
Poll Aggregation Fight
Last week I got into a little Twitter fight with Nat[e] Silver. I tweeted that I am concerned about the FiveThirtyEight forecast, both how much volatility it has and how predictable the forecast is. … Here is summary of methodological disagreements with Nate Silver (who I find to be a […] Read more »