In recent elections, more and more voters have been choosing candidates from the same party for president and Senate. That trend appeared to be holding true this year too, even with Donald Trump, unusual as he is, on the ballot. So as Hillary Clinton jumped out to a bigger lead […] Read more »
Is There Any Precedent For A Trump Comeback?
Donald Trump now trails Hillary Clinton by 6.6 percentage points, according to our polls-only model. And the clock is ticking. We’re 26 days from the election, and by this point in past campaigns, the concrete had basically dried. Trump could stage a comeback. It’s possible. But it would be basically […] Read more »
Clinton Adds to Her Electoral College Edge
In the broad sweep of U.S. history, very occasionally one of the major parties simply disqualifies itself from the contest to win the White House by nominating an unelectable, non-mainstream candidate. We suspect that there will never be a better example than Donald Trump. … It will take another round […] Read more »
Battleground Map: Trump In Crisis
Ahead of the second presidential debate Sunday night, the secret Donald Trump audio tape of him bragging about groping and kissing women — and let’s be clear, if he did what he’s bragging that he did, it would be assault — has shaken the presidential race and is reshaping the […] Read more »
Are Trump’s Polls Getting Worse?
Donald Trump had drawn to within 1 or 2 percentage points of Hillary Clinton in the popular vote and into a near-tie in the Electoral College before last Monday’s presidential debate. But the debate almost immediately moved the polls in Clinton’s favor, putting her in a much more comfortable position. […] Read more »
Latino Voters Poised to Cast Most Lopsided Presidential Vote on Record
Records on Latino voting preferences in presidential contests stretch back at least nine elections, to Reagan’s 1980 victory over Jimmy Carter. Over the past three-and-a-half decades, Bill Clinton’s reelection in 1996 with 72% of Latino voters vs. Bob Dole’s 21%—a fifty-one point gap—has been the most lopsided outcome recorded. According […] Read more »