In the broad sweep of U.S. history, very occasionally one of the major parties simply disqualifies itself from the contest to win the White House by nominating an unelectable, non-mainstream candidate. We suspect that there will never be a better example than Donald Trump. …
It will take another round of polls to grasp the full impact of the Trump tape and the debate. While it’s tempting to speculate that Trump will free fall, party loyalty in this era is probably too strong for that to happen. But even before the debate, Hillary Clinton has gotten fairly strong numbers. That’s translating to an improved outlook for her in our Electoral College ratings, which are starting to look very similar to the map we had before Clinton’s September swoon. CONT.
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
