Sunday’s French presidential election was the latest in a trend. The centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron, won by a considerably wider margin than most observers predicted, with a 32-percentage-point landslide over Marine Le Pen, larger than the 24-point margin that the final polls showed. But the trend isn’t that center-left globalism […] Read more »
Macron Won, But The French Polls Were Way Off
Emmanuel Macron’s 32-percentage-point victory in France’s presidential election runoff may end up being touted as a triumph for French pollsters, who consistently gave him a huge advantage. But it shouldn’t be. The polls leading up to the contest between the centrist Macron and his far-right opponent were the least predictive […] Read more »
These recent elections show that polling isn’t, and never was, broken
Global financial markets and European Union leaders heaved a sigh of relief after the first round of the French presidential election last month. And so did professional pollsters. It turns out the polls were not broken in France, as they were said to have been in the American presidential election […] Read more »
What Democrats’ Losses in 2010 Can Tell Us About G.O.P.’s Chances in 2018
There’s no way to know how the health care debate in Congress will play out, but there’s a lot of reason to think that the House vote to replace the Affordable Care Act has put Republicans on a risky path heading into next year’s midterm elections. CONT. Nate Cohn, New […] Read more »
Pollsters Find ‘At Best Mixed Evidence’ Comey Letter Swayed Election
FBI Director James Comey said this week that he is “mildly nauseous” at the idea that the FBI may have swayed the presidential election results. A new report may ease that nausea, if only a little. “We would conclude there is at best mixed evidence to suggest that the FBI […] Read more »
Q&A: Political polls and the 2016 election
The outcome of the 2016 presidential election surprised a lot of people – not least the many political pollsters and analysts covering it. Today the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), the nation’s leading organization of survey researchers, released a long-awaited report that examines polling during last year’s long […] Read more »