Donald Trump’s widely unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election has raised questions about the accuracy of public opinion polling, the aggregation of polling into probabilistic election forecasts and the interpretation of election polling by data analysts, journalists and the general public. While national-level polls on average proved as […] Read more »
Why The 2018 Senate Elections Are Looking Bad For Both Parties
The 2018 midterms are a story of two chambers. Democrats are in the best position they’ve been in since 2010 to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. The Senate map, on the other hand, is so tilted toward the GOP that most political analysts have all […] Read more »
Are Democrats headed toward a wave election?
Quinnipiac’s recent national poll made quite a splash when it reported a Democratic lead of 16 points on the generic Congressional ballot question. Indeed, conventional wisdom – as well as historical trends – suggests that Democrats, as the party opposite that of the new president and in the Congressional minority, […] Read more »
Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?
After a cacophonous two weeks of political news, a new sound has begun to emerge from Washington: the word “impeachment.” … In a perfect world, we’d have data on hundreds of presidents, a few dozen of whom had been impeached. That would let us statistically identify the various factors that […] Read more »
Why don’t Republicans and Democrats see the same economy?
Ever since the election of US president Donald Trump, consumer surveyors have noticed a trend: A determining factor for Americans’ economic outlook is whether they are Democrats or Republicans. … Though the new administration has yet to enact any significant economic policy, there is a logic to the shifting expectations: […] Read more »
House 2018: Health Care Vote Gives Democrats Another Midterm Argument
Democrats are hopeful that Republicans’ vote last week to pass the American Health Care Act provides them an argument to use in next year’s election. Only 20 House Republicans voted against the bill, which is not polling well and which Democrats are angling to use as a cudgel against the […] Read more »