In April, when U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May called for a “snap” general election for June 8, polls showed her Conservatives with an average lead of 17 percentage points over Labour. … Recent surveys show Labour zooming up in the polls and Conservatives having declined somewhat (although some of Labour’s […] Read more »
UK election: The pollsters’ experimental election
… From the pollsters’ point of view this is an experimental election. We all got it wrong in 2015 and we are all trying different methods to get it right this year. … There are lots of differences between how different polling companies are doing their sums. Some poll online, […] Read more »
After the surprise of 2016, here’s how pollsters can do better in predicting election results
… The simplest and most popular way to combine predictions is to take the average of everyone’s predictions and then use it as a kind of index for the group’s prediction. This uses all the forecasts and hence is at least thinking along the right track. Unfortunately, however, the simple […] Read more »
Are UK pollsters headed for another embarrassing election?
Will Jennings, University of Southampton and Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton Following the political surprises of 2015 and 2016, there has been much reflection and debate on the accuracy of the polls in the run-up to the impending snap-election of 2017. It is fair to say that, although perhaps somewhat […] Read more »
A Smarter Way to Interpret 2017’s Special Elections
The results of individual special elections, like Thursday’s in Montana between Democrat Rob Quist and Republican Greg Gianforte, can’t always foretell what will happen in the next high-stakes midterm. Each district presents its own unique set of variables, like flawed candidates or dreadfully unpopular governors. But taken collectively, the margins […] Read more »
19 House Races Shift Toward Democrats
The midterm elections are still nearly a year and a half away, and the political dynamics could yet change, but we shouldn’t ignore the fact that history and the current environment are merging together for a potentially great set of elections for Democrats in November 2018. CONT. Nathan L. Gonzales, […] Read more »