Three facts about polling in the 2016 election are well established by now: The national polls were quite accurate in their estimates of the popular vote. The state polls were spottier. And the media narrative, drawn from electoral college projections vote based on those state polls, was a hot mess. […] Read more »
How did the U.K. election forecasts do?
… U.K. elections have been tough to forecast in recent years. The 2016 Brexit vote was a shock to many, although the polls suggested it would be close. The last parliamentary election, in May 2015, was also a surprise: Public opinion polls and academic forecasts predicted a hung parliament, but […] Read more »
Report card: how well did UK election forecasters perform this time?
Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Trent University When Theresa May announced on April 18 that she would call a snap general election, most commentators viewed the precise outcome of the vote as little more than a formality. The Conservatives were sailing more than 20% ahead of the Labour party in a […] Read more »
UK election: The day after
On 30 May, the YouGov model for the 2017 General Election was posted here and created a firestorm. At that time, most polls showed double-digit leads for the Tories and nobody else was suggesting that the Conservative majority was at risk. … In addition to the public skepticism, insiders in […] Read more »
The U.K. Election Wasn’t That Much Of A Shock
… The final polling average showed conservatives ahead by 6.4 percentage points. In fact, Conservatives should wind up winning the popular vote by 2 to 3 percentage points. That means the polling average will have been off by about 4 percentage points. … While a 4-point error would be fairly […] Read more »
Democrats Keep Losing, but They May Be on Track to Win
The president’s approval ratings are stuck in the upper 30s, and the party out of power typically does well in off-year elections. But so far, Democrats don’t have any big wins to show for it. … But even if the Democrats go 0 for 4, these special election results augur […] Read more »