Results of recent special elections have fueled speculation about whether Democrats have a realistic chance to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. … In reality, the results of a handful of special elections probably provide little information about what to expect next fall. […] Read more »
Where Can Democrats Win?
… For election forecasting purposes, the margins matter: that Ossoff and Parnell came fairly close to beating their opponents yields a different interpretation than if they’d been blown out. And South Carolina is an important data point, just as Georgia was, even if it received a fraction of as much […] Read more »
Virginia Governor Contest Still Leans Democratic
While the margins, if not the outcomes, of Virginia’s gubernatorial primaries may have been a surprise, the long view of the race remains the same — Democrats are in position to hold the commonwealth’s governorship in November. CONT. Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call Read more »
UK general election: How we correctly called a hung parliament
As the dust of the general election settles, many commentators are still stating they didn’t see it coming. But we did. By using our unparalleled panel and sophisticated data analytics, we created an election model using an advanced statistical technique called MRP (which stands for multilevel regression with post-stratification). We […] Read more »
Polling Matters podcast: UK GE17 debrief. Breaking down the YouGov model.
This week’s podcast is split into two parts. In part one, Keiran chats with Ben Lauderdale from the LSE. Ben was behind the infamous YouGov model which turned out to be so successful. He explains how the model works, what it tells us about the campaign and British politics more […] Read more »
Why almost all the UK election predictions were wrong
Predictions were confounded again in last week’s election, and this time in the opposite direction from 2015. My forecast, along with almost everyone else’s, proved some way off the mark. The main error was in the national vote shares, rather than translating that into seats, and there was a specific […] Read more »