One of the big questions heading into the 2018 midterm elections — maybe the biggest — is how President Trump’s unpopularity will affect Republican fortunes. Normally, a president with historically low approval ratings would be a disaster for his party in Senate and House races in a midterm year. But […] Read more »
Forecast Model Suggests Democratic Gains Likely in 2018 Gubernatorial Contests
In addition to the entire U.S. House of Representatives and about one-third of the U.S. Senate, Americans will be choosing 36 state governors in 2018. Control of statehouses is crucial not only because many important policy decisions are made at the state level, but because the governors elected next year […] Read more »
House 2018: How Big Is the Playing Field?
If Democrats do have a chance to win the House next year, it might be because they translated a currently big field of announced candidates into credible opportunities to flip not just some of the top seats on their list of targets, but also some seats that, on paper, might […] Read more »
In 47 states, a smaller part of the population now approves of Trump than voted for him
… Using interviews conducted over Trump’s first six months in office — during which his approval slipped slightly nationally — Gallup determined the average approval in each of the 50 states. It’s worth noting that in 47 of the states, Trump’s approval rating is now below the percentage of the […] Read more »
This poll is a warning sign for Democrats
History suggests the 2018 election will almost surely be a bad one for Republicans. Midterms are generally considered a referendum on the president, and the results are almost always bad for said president. Layer on that President Trump is the most unpopular new president in the modern era, and it […] Read more »
Computational Campaign Coverage
… Within the “Computational Campaign Coverage” research project, researchers teamed up with the German-based software company AX Semantics to develop automated news based on forecasting data for the 2016 U.S. presidential elections. The data was provided by the PollyVote research project, which also hosted the platform for the publication of […] Read more »