The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Pre-election polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency […] Read more »
The Ways That the 2016 Election Was Perfectly Normal
It’s no secret that the state of the nation’s economy and party identification matter in most American presidential elections. Candidates know it, consultants know it, political scientists know it, and voters seem aware of the relationship, too. … In actuality, the state of the nation’s economy — growing slowly — […] Read more »
Don’t Just Look At Trump’s Approval Rating To Judge His First 100 Days
With President Trump’s 100th day in office approaching, analysts and pundits are taking stock of his performance. How’s he doing? The simplest, most common way to answer that question is to look at Trump’s approval rating (it’s low, but the bottom hasn’t fallen out). And that’s a perfectly fine measure […] Read more »
Initial 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings: Competitive races abound as GOP plays defense in many open seats
Those looking for electoral drama in the 2018 cycle should pay attention to the 38 gubernatorial races being held this year and next. In our initial ratings of these contests, more than half of them — 20 of 38 — start in the competitive Toss-up or Leans Republican/Democratic categories. That […] Read more »
Can Elections Like Georgia’s Help Predict Future Races?
The congressional election in Georgia this week was billed as having potential national implications, as an early test of whether anti-Trump energy could fuel Democratic victory in a traditionally Republican district. It seems likely that the same will be said for scattered upcoming special elections in other states. But political […] Read more »
Trump Probably Won’t Defy Midterm Gravity
The midterms will probably be rough for Donald Trump and Republicans next year. Here’s the main reason we know that: They’re almost always rough on the president’s party. It’s one of the most consistent regularities in American politics. Usually it’s a question of whether the damage is pretty bad, really […] Read more »