The pre-election polls in Virginia were wildly inconsistent. The disparate methodologies, specifically how samples were selected, muddied the narrative of the gubernatorial contest. As the Poll Hub team explains, the traditional method of conducting live interviews using a Random Digit Dial sampling method proved the most accurate in predicting this […] Read more »
The Fox News Voter Analysis Exit Poll – Not a sterling launch
As reported here this past Monday, Fox News decided to launch its own exit poll for Tuesday’s election, abandoning the media consortium it had worked with since 1998. Called “The Fox News Voter Analysis,” the reported purpose of this new venture was to provide a faster prediction of election outcomes […] Read more »
The Fundamentals Favor Democrats In 2018
Democrats had a really good night on Tuesday, easily claiming the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, flipping control of the Washington state Senate and possibly also the Virginia House of Delegates, passing a ballot measure in Maine that will expand Medicaid in the state, winning a variety of mayoral […] Read more »
Post-ABC poll: Voters favor Democrats over Republicans in 2018 House midterms by widest margin in years
Voters say they prefer Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives over Republicans by the widest margin in over a decade, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll — a fresh sign of trouble for the GOP majority one year before the midterm elections. But Democrats’ effort to convert […] Read more »
Democratic advantage for ’18 might not be what it seems
A Democratic advantage in preference for the 2018 midterm elections fades to insignificance among the most likely voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, signs of the Democrats’ enduring challenges in turning out their voters in off-year contests. CONT. Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »
When Should We Start Paying Attention to the Congressional Generic Ballot Test?
For years, the best tool to predict which party will gain House seats in any given election has been the so-called “generic ballot test.” The “generic” is a poll question that asks voters which party they’d support in the upcoming congressional election. While it can’t tell us exactly how many […] Read more »