When covering Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN and the Associated Press will share the same exit poll data, as they have on every Election Day since forming a consortium called the National Election Pool in 2003. But Fox News, a member of the […] Read more »
Signs and Portents: What we’ll be looking for in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday
In an off-year long on election commentary but short on actual elections, the two main events on a Spartan political calendar are now upon us: New Jersey and Virginia will elect new governors next week, and the stakes are high, particularly for Democrats. … To get ready for next week, […] Read more »
A Democratic Senate Majority Hinges on Tennessee
We may have already reached a critical juncture in the 2018 Senate midterm elections, so beware of simplistic interpretations. Too often people look at possible electoral outcomes in a binary way; everything is either a zero or a one. In this case, it’s either Democrats cannot win a majority in […] Read more »
Trump’s Re-Election Edge Is Greatly Exaggerated
Few stories are more irresistible than those that take on the conventional wisdom and come from an unexpected source. Doug Sosnik, a smart operative in Bill Clinton’s White House, provided both with a column this month suggesting that Donald Trump is well-positioned for re-election. … Sosnik’s column has led to […] Read more »
Senate: Republicans’ 2018 Prospects Erode
Senate Republicans started the cycle with a good electoral map that gave them some hope that they could gain seats, even in a mid-term election when history strongly suggests that they should lose them. But, a growing schism in the Republican Party is threatening to erode many of the advantages […] Read more »
Democrats Could Use a Few More GOP House Retirements
A little over a year out, Democrats’ prospects of winning back the House look considerably brighter in nationwide polls than they do in a race-by-race analysis. Since June, the FiveThirtyEight average of congressional generic ballot polls has consistently given Democrats roughly an eight point edge — right about where they […] Read more »