If it wasn’t already clear, last Tuesday’s election results confirmed a political atmosphere that would seriously endanger the House GOP’s majority in 2018. In Virginia, turnout was up 20 percent over 2013 in localities won by Hillary Clinton, compared to 13 percent in localities carried by President Trump. Not only […] Read more »
Politics & Polls podcast: The Day the Donkey Roared
Democrats triumphed in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races Nov. 7, which some say is a strong rebuke to Republican President Donald Trump. Are the democratic victories a predictor of what’s to come in the midterm results next year? Joining this episode are Larry Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley of […] Read more »
A Wave Is a Comin’
The last two weeks have seen some significant movement in Democrats favor. First, there were the impressive results from last Tuesday’s elections. This week, we’ve seen two polls — one by Quinnipiac and one by Marist — that show Democrats with a congressional ballot advantage of +13 to +15. Three […] Read more »
Alabama Senate: Jones Now Narrowly Favored
It’s amazing to write, and there’s time for our outlook to change, but here goes: A Democrat is now a narrow favorite to win a Senate special election in Alabama. We’re changing our rating of the Dec. 12 special election from Likely Republican all the way to Leans Democratic. Republicans […] Read more »
Trump won, and Northam crushed Gillespie. Why believe polls ever again?
Back in 1962, Elmo Roper, a pioneer in public opinion polling, identified a problem in his field. “A preference for certainty over doubt, for the plausible over the proved, for drama over accuracy, for hunch and intuition over the hard-to-assemble facts, is a common human tendency,” he wrote. Fifty-five years […] Read more »
How Republican losses in Virginia could mean real trouble for the GOP in 2018
In 1897, an earthquake that hit 5.8 on the Richter scale shook Virginia and was felt across 12 other states. Six months later, William McKinley’s Republican Party experienced its own disaster in Virginia, losing 15 seats in the state House of Delegates. Not until Tuesday night did another such earthquake […] Read more »