… We didn’t see many House Democrats rooting for Donald Trump to win the general election in 2016, but the simple fact of his election made a Democratic House takeover much more likely in the 2018 midterm just because of the longstanding trend for the presidential party to lose ground […] Read more »
Alabama Senate: It’s a Toss-Up
With less than two weeks to go until the Alabama Senate runoff, we’re pulling back our Leans Democratic rating in the race and going to Toss-up. We just don’t feel comfortable making anyone a favorite at this point. The race is as stern a test of tribal partisanship as one […] Read more »
From Virginia to …
Virginia victories provided Democrats with a needed psychological shot in the arm. … The wailing of the commentariat notwithstanding, in truth, this year’s special elections hold out even more hope for big Democratic gains in 2018 than Virginia and New Jersey, even though Democrats lost several of the high-profile specials. […] Read more »
Democratic Wave Begins Forming Off Political Coast
In theory, wave elections are very exciting for political analysts and aficionados. They tend to feature lots of upsets, which unfold in cascading fashion, adding to the drama. But in other ways, they are fairly humdrum because there is usually plenty of warning that they’re coming. As in the Morton […] Read more »
If 2018 Is Like 2017, the House Will Be a Tossup
Assume, for the moment, that next year’s midterm elections go exactly like this year’s special and general elections. What would happen? The Democrats would post sweeping gains. They would win the House national popular vote, probably by a wide margin. But the battle for House control would be close. The […] Read more »
Why Menendez Is Still A Favorite In New Jersey’s Senate Race
One of the biggest wild cards in the 2018 battle for the U.S. Senate may not be so wild after all. New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’s federal corruption trial ended in a hung jury last week. That leaves him free to run for reelection in 2018. Menendez could be […] Read more »