In this week’s episode, Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report, offers his take on the impact that the Alabama special election, Trump’s approval rating, the public’s view of the new tax reform law and other factors will have on the political landscape in 2018. Later, we […] Read more »
Wave Watch
This past May, I wrote a piece positing that the generic Congressional vote averages from surveys taken roughly until Memorial Day of the year preceding an election are not reliable indicators of a party’s performance in that election. Seven months later – and now less than 11 months from Election […] Read more »
Democrats’ 2018 advantage expands
Democrats’ already wide advantage over Republicans in a hypothetical Congressional matchup has grown, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. At the same time, enthusiasm about voting next year has increased among Democrats nationwide following an unexpected win in Alabama’s Senate special election and a strong showing in […] Read more »
Democrats hold biggest lead in congressional preference since 2008
Fresh off their victory in Alabama’s special Senate election, Democrats now enjoy their largest advantage in congressional preference in nine years, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, signaling a dangerous political environment for Republicans entering next year’s midterm elections. Fifty percent of registered voters say they prefer […] Read more »
Once Unthinkable, Senate Looks Like a Tossup in 2018
At this time last year, the Democratic path to Senate control seemed impossible: Hold all of the Democratic seats, flip Arizona and Nevada, then hope for a miracle. The Democrats got the political version of a miracle on Tuesday. Doug Jones’s victory in Alabama means Democrats have accomplished the most […] Read more »
Partisan Gerrymandering and the Outlook for the 2018 U.S. House Elections
There is a growing sense among political observers that the United States may be heading toward a wave election in 2018. … Despite these signs of an impending Democratic wave, however, many political experts believe that the way House district lines in many key states were drawn by Republicans prior […] Read more »