Democrats ended 2016 dejected and despondent after Donald Trump shocked Hillary Clinton — and the world — by a tiny combined margin of 77,744 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win the presidency. A year later, Democrats are ending 2017 as the slight favorites to take back the House […] Read more »
Americans’ 2018 Predictions: Foreign Strife, Strong Economy
As Americans look ahead to 2018, eight in 10 predict it will be a troubled year filled with international discord rather than peace. The public is more optimistic about the economy, with a slight majority anticipating a year of economic prosperity. Americans split evenly on whether U.S. power in the […] Read more »
What Harry Got Wrong In 2017
It’s almost 2018. For some, that means looking forward to the new year — what are the big political storylines to watch in the coming year? But I can’t do that until we finish one last end-of-year tradition: remembering all the times I screwed up! That’s right: It’s time for […] Read more »
Only the Economy Could Change the Political Atmosphere
There is no shortage of numbers and developments that should be worrisome to Republicans as they approach the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats swept both of the 2017 gubernatorial races, in New Jersey and Virginia, captured a U.S. Senate seat in ruby-red Alabama, and scored strong state legislative gains across the […] Read more »
19 Things We Learned from the 2016 Election
We can all agree that the presidential election result was a shocker. According to news reports, even the Trump campaign team was stunned to come up a winner. So now seems like a good time to go over various theories floating around in political science and political reporting and see […] Read more »
Democrats Are Pulling Away in the Generic Ballot. What Does That Mean?
Despite all the unusual political events of the last few years, one thing in electoral politics is proceeding by the book: the growing Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot. … Although the size of the advantage seems startling, a Democratic edge on the generic ballot is not that much […] Read more »