… In assessing 2018’s gubernatorial landscape, the question is not whether the Democrats will add more seats to their gubernatorial stable, but rather how many and which ones. The Republicans are at such a high-water mark that it will be hard for them to net seats. They are defending 26 […] Read more »
Are Democrats’ Senate Chances In 2018 Overrated?
After Democrat Doug Jones won a stunning victory in Alabama’s special election for the U.S. Senate last month, lots of smart people whose work I read and follow, such as The New York Times’s Nate Cohn, declared that the battle for Senate control in 2018 was a “toss-up.” Prediction markets […] Read more »
A White House That Can’t Shoot Straight
The NBC News Political Unit’s morning newsletter First Read on Thursday nailed it, noting, “The last two days are a reminder that 2018 will be all about Trump: For those who thought the GOP’s tax law or Democrats’ message might be key parts of the 2018 midterm environment, the first […] Read more »
For New Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith, a Lesser Form of Incumbency
On Tuesday, now-former Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) officially resigned from the U.S. Senate following allegations of inappropriate behavior toward women. As we discussed in our last newsletter for 2017, Franken’s resignation means that Minnesota will hold a special election for Senate this coming November, which will take place at the […] Read more »
House Seats You Think Can’t Flip but Might
Responses to the “generic ballot” poll question suggest a partisan electoral wave is building. But the fight for control of the House isn’t a single national election. It will be fought district by district, and national Democrats face challenges on the ground even with the generic ballot favoring them. … […] Read more »
How trustworthy are the polls, more than a year after the 2016 election?
Over the past year, political professionals have been picking over the pre-election polling data to figure out whether the polls failed to predict Donald Trump’s upset victory over Hillary Clinton. In many people’s minds, the polls were flat wrong in 2016. Actually, it’s more complicated than that. … After interviewing […] Read more »