House Democrats, as we have been reporting now for months, have the wind firmly at their back this year. All signs are pointing to a better than 50-50 shot at taking control of the House, perhaps by a decent margin. Even so, we’ve also noted that Republicans have a built-in […] Read more »
Open Season in the House
Last week’s retirements by two prominent Southern California House Republicans, Reps. Darrell Issa (R, CA-49) and Ed Royce (R, CA-39), brought attention to a growing exodus by House Republicans from Congress. These retirements likely will make it harder for Republicans to hold the House, although in most instances the retirements […] Read more »
It’s a Blue House Wave, but Not Yet a Senate One
“The odds are greater than half we will take back the Senate.” — Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer on “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” on Monday night Democrats ought to temper their optimism about the fight for the Senate this year. Yes, Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama’s special […] Read more »
Long before 2018 votes, retirements make GOP map tougher
The political landscape of an election takes shape long before any votes are cast, and judging by who is not running in 2018, the year is not shaping up well for the GOP. This week, three more Republicans announced they would not seek reelection in the House of Representatives, bringing […] Read more »
‘Wave versus the map’: Democratic control of Senate moves from preposterous to possible
The possibility that Democrats could win the Senate in 2018 seemed preposterous a year ago given President Trump’s stunning victory and the basic math facing a party defending three times as many seats as Republicans in November’s midterm elections. Not anymore. The debate has grown over Democrats’ chances of capturing […] Read more »
(Don’t) Miss Independents
Listen to cable TV or almost any political discussion these days and you’ll hear the term “the base” a lot. “Isn’t this all about Trump keeping his base happy?” or, “will the Democratic base accept a compromise with the president?” or, “which party has the most motivated base?” What we […] Read more »