… The forecast that I created with Parker Quinn and Brice Acree currently gives Democrats a 226 to Republicans 209 edge after the midterm elections. Yet, it’s not as if all hope is lost for Republicans at this point. Indeed, I would point out that it’s important to watch the […] Read more »
Nine kinds of races that will decide the fate of the House
With 18 days until Election Day, Democrats are the clear favorites to take the House, thanks to President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings, a historic number of GOP open seats and record-shattering Democratic fundraising. But it’s not a done deal yet. Roughly a sixth of America will decide the House. […] Read more »
A Shift in GOP Fortunes
The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was either no net change at all, or a shift of one […] Read more »
The Drive for 25: An updated seat-by-seat analysis of the House
For all the talk of the House generic ballot, President Trump’s approval rating, and other big-picture factors that point to the overall direction of the fight for the House, the battle for the majority comes down to a district-by-district slog. And it is a district-by-district assessment that shows the Democratic […] Read more »
Odds Are, Your Next Governor Will Be A Democrat
In the midterm elections for the House and Senate, Democrats are very likely to win the majority of votes, but they face structural barriers to winning the majority of seats. … In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million votes but lost the […] Read more »
The Political Class Got 2016 Wrong. Could We See a Repeat?
… Although most politicos argued it was unlikely that Trump could win the presidency trailing Clinton going into the last weekend before the election, they forgot or chose to deny that it was still theoretically possible that voters could deliver a surprise outcome. Many are still in denial. Reading the […] Read more »