… If Democrats win the House, as we currently forecast, it will be because of women voters. The Democratic Party is currently benefiting from the largest gender gap on record for a midterm election. In an average of the last five live interview generic congressional ballot polls, Democrats hold a […] Read more »
Ten Rating Changes as Democrats’ Enthusiasm Edge Narrows and Fundraising Advantage Widens
Two weeks out, district-level polls reflect a House battleground gradually polarizing along the lines of the 2016 presidential race. Democrats are maintaining leads over GOP opponents in upscale, Clinton-won “Whole Foods suburbs” of Chicago, Denver, Kansas City, Minneapolis and Northern Virginia. But Republicans’ numbers continue to improve in Trump-won districts […] Read more »
Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up. Republican House Chances Are Down. Does That Make Any Sense?
Just in time for the Nov. 6 election, President Trump is posting some of the best job approval numbers of his presidency. His approval rating is currently 43.1 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, the highest it’s been since March 2017. His disapproval rating is 52.0 percent, so let’s not […] Read more »
Many Possible Paths to a House Majority for Democrats, None Guaranteed
Democratic strength in mostly white, well-educated suburbs has stretched the Republican House majority to the breaking point. The good news for Republicans is it’s not clear that their majority has actually broken yet. The good news for Democrats is that the midterm playing field is big and diverse. There are […] Read more »
House Midterm Outlook: Look for a Democratic Flip
Are we still headed for a Democratic wave in the House next month? That all depends on how you define a wave. But one thing is clear: Democrats are still likely to flip the chamber even after all the buzz about a post-Kavanaugh Republican bounce. CONT. Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call Read more »
What Nate Silver’s learned about forecasting elections
This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and […] Read more »