Close observers of American politics seem to live in a world of constant suspense and frequent unforeseen plot twists, but the state of public opinion out in the country at large is in fact remarkably stable these days. … Stability isn’t the same thing as certainty, however, and the lack […] Read more »
Senate: 11 Days Out; NJ Moves to Toss Up
With November 6 just 11 days away, it seems that the overall Senate playing field won’t change much, although it appears that some of the races in Toss Up are getting even tighter, if that’s possible. CONT. Jennifer E. Duffy, Cook Political Report Read more »
Trump’s Numbers Improve, But GOP Problems Remain
Knowing that midterm elections are referenda on the incumbent president, Republicans have prayed since the early stages of this election cycle that President Trump’s job-approval ratings would rise. GOP officials and strategists knew that in many (but not all) places and voter groups, Trump was a millstone around the necks […] Read more »
Democrats lead in battleground districts that will determine control of U.S. House
The Cook Political Report-LSU Manship School poll, a national survey with an oversample of voters in the most competitive U.S. House districts, goes beyond tracking the lead in the vote for Congress to offer insights into what underlies the election. Democrats lead in the battleground districts that will decide control […] Read more »
A dozen days to go: Ratings changes in gubernatorial, House races
The battles for the state governorships are getting more volatile as Election Day nears. We are moving three races, Kansas, Oregon, and South Dakota, to Toss-up. Republican odds of holding the Senate are as good as ever. The playing field continues to expand in the House. CONT. Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s […] Read more »
What I learned from The New York Times
When The New York Times’s Upshot announced it was “live polling” this year’s hottest races, I wasn’t a fan. But my worst fears weren’t realized and I learned some things watching the interviews roll in. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »