by Mark DiCamillo In the final weeks leading up to this year’s November mid-term elections, President Donald Trump encouraged voters across the country to vote as if he were on the ballot. When he said this, it got me to thinking what that might mean for voters here in California. […] Read more »
In the midterms, much of the Democrats’ Blue Wave hit a Republican Red Wall
Two of the main casualties for pollsters in most elections are often their reputation and their credibility. In the US, their perceived failure to predict the election victory of Donald Trump left many to question if they could ever be trusted again. Going into the midterms, the leading pollsters had […] Read more »
The Senate Will Be Competitive Again In 2020, But Republicans Are Favored
Before the election, we took a way-too-early look at the 2020 battleground — in the U.S. Senate. We landed on this takeaway: Democrats really couldn’t afford to lose much ground in the 2018 elections or they’d dig themselves into a hole for 2020. Well, with the special-election runoff in Mississippi […] Read more »
Polling Error in the 2018 Midterm Election
Here are some graphs summarizing analysis I’ve been doing on polling error in the 2018 midterm elections. CONT. Alexander Agadjanian Read more »
What the Polls Got Right This Year, and Where They Went Wrong
It was a good year for polls. This time, they got the basic story of the election right: a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. And on average, the final polls were closer to the results than any election in a decade. Best of all, the polls were relatively unbiased, […] Read more »
Don’t Blame the Polls
Say it with me, everyone: Polls are not predictions. Polls are not predictions. POLLS ARE NOT PREDICTIONS! I’m reminding you all of this mantra because one thing that always happens in the days after an election is the blame game. … Actually, it was a pretty good election night for […] Read more »