We were given the following prompt in July 2022 and asked to write a response: “The Economy, Stupid: Accepted wisdom has it that it’s the economy that matters to voters. Will other issues matter in the upcoming midterm elections, or will it really be all about the economy?” In the […] Read more »
High Floors + Low Ceilings = Tight Races
Don’t be surprised between now and the midterm elections to see most independent political prognosticators being unusually cautious in their pronouncements (those in the partisan cheerleading roles will exhibit their predictable responses). After all, the trajectory of this campaign has already departed that of any midterm election in modern times. […] Read more »
Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again
… That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016. Wisconsin is a good example. On paper, the Republican senator Ron Johnson ought to be favored to win re-election. The […] Read more »
Two Months That Turned the 2022 Midterms on Their Head
With control of both the Senate and the House very clearly on the line, this election has become a contest about which party can more effectively frame this 2022 midterm election on terms favorable to themselves. The default scripting for midterms is as a referendum on the sitting president, particularly […] Read more »
Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models
Key Points• A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate.• A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but by less than the model […] Read more »
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections
Key Points• This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections.• The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the election’s national outcome.• The seats-in-trouble […] Read more »