President Donald Trump’s approval rating among voters has been stuck at or below 45% for pretty much his entire presidency. And, at this point in the campaign, a record percentage of voters say they’ll vote against him. So how does Trump win a second term? The answer may be that […] Read more »
Farewell Ross Perot; Senate races on the fringe of the competitive map; the curious case of Justin Amash
There is a great quote from George McGovern, the 1972 Democratic presidential nominee and South Dakota senator: “You know, sometimes, when they say you’re ahead of your time, it’s just a polite way of saying you have a real bad sense of timing.” Given how American politics has developed over […] Read more »
What We’ve Gleaned About The Democratic Primary From 6 Months Of Polls
Earlier this year, we published a three-part series on how well primary polls conducted in the calendar year before a presidential election predict the outcome. Our analysis, which covered more than 40 years of primaries, found that early polls are somewhat predictive of who eventually wins the nomination, especially when […] Read more »
What we can learn from the 2004 presidential race
Beware of reading too much into presidential polls. Take, for example, the 2004 race. An August 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup national survey found Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for vice president, leading the party’s presidential field with 23 percent. He was trailed by former House Majority (and Minority) […] Read more »
Rating changes: Texas and Minnesota Senate races shift the Democrats’ way
The fight for Senate control is still taking shape and, less than 16 months before Election Day, two states appear to moving in the Democrats’ direction on the battlefield. CONT. Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call Read more »
If the latest polls are right, Trump is favored to win reelection
The headline news from the most recent Post poll was that President Trump remains behind or tied with all major Democratic contenders. The takeaway should have been that if this poll is correct, Trump is almost a lock to win. There are two reasons that this is the case. The […] Read more »