The difficult choice facing Democratic primary voters looks even more inscrutable after last week’s first round of party presidential debates. Nothing matters more to Democratic voters than picking a nominee with the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, who many party activists consider an existential threat to their values […] Read more »
It’s All About Name Recognition, Folks!
I was watching a news channel the other day when the resident pundit opined that polls show Joe Biden to be the most formidable Democrat against Donald Trump. “No! They do not. Stop saying that,” I shouted into the void. There is a great deal of nuance in what these […] Read more »
There’s no election polling makeover for 2020
Pollsters spent a lot of time figuring out why Donald Trump’s win was such a surprise in 2016 — but the reality is that there isn’t going to be a radical change in most election polling for 2020. Why it matters: Everyone should be more cautious in 2020 about what […] Read more »
‘Electability’ is the most important, least understood word in the 2020 race
The most important factor in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary is also the most unknowable: Electability. Unlike primary voters in every other recent presidential election, Democrats are still so rattled by the 2016 election that they keep telling pollsters they’ll vote for whichever candidate they think has the best chance […] Read more »
Is 31 Biden’s Magic Number?
On this week’s mini-episode, Harry mines the historical archives to assess Joe Biden’s chances of holding on to his frontrunner position. The Forecast with Harry Enten Read more »
Will America Make Trump Great Again?
… Donald Trump is a bizarre man to have as president. He confounds the conventional wisdom about politics. But he’s also been subject to the typical rules of politics. When he does unpopular things, he becomes unpopular. Political gravity exists, and it has kept him at a disadvantage. But the […] Read more »