We are now under a month until Election Day, and you can feel the midterm campaign really taking hold. From Herschel Walker generating headlines for his troubles in Georgia to the Senate GOP campaign arm cutting bait in New Hampshire, we’re getting down to crunch time. All of this is […] Read more »
Midterm polls swing back to the right
Over the past few months, Democrats have enjoyed an unexpected feeling of optimism, as polling has shown their party unexpectedly competitive in House and Senate races. Maybe, despite the political gravity tugging their party down, they might be able to hold the Senate? Maybe both chambers? In less-realistic iterations, that […] Read more »
Democracy Moneyball, 2022 Edition
… Politics is a game of active participation. If you feel passionate about a candidate, a party, or an issue, you can do the equivalent of run onto the playing field! You can go door-to-door or donate money, you can work for a campaign, and you can even run for […] Read more »
Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House
Key Points• The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races.• So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The lion’s share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating that Democrats are playing significantly […] Read more »
Midterms 2022: April seems like ancient history
Less than six months ago — April, to be specific — Democrats were wringing their hands about the party’s prospects in November and Republicans were counting their chickens before their midterm eggs had hatched. … Long-term historical trends, combined with Biden’s standing in national polls, the enthusiasm gap and the […] Read more »
Are the Polls Giving Dems False Hope Again?
… Polling is the lifeblood of politics. It drives press coverage and campaign decision-making. But what if polling is fundamentally broken? What if we are viewing politics through a fun house mirror? … Is the recent burst of Democratic optimism another case of inaccurate poll-fueled naivete? No. While polls may […] Read more »