… J. Ann Selzer, the head of the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, first became the subject of national attention in 2008, when her survey correctly showed that Barack Obama would win the Iowa contest, thanks to unprecedented turnout among first-time voters. … Even as Americans have grown doubtful about […] Read more »
Trump trails Democrats by a historically large margin
A new national Quinnipiac University poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg all lead President Donald Trump by significant margins in potential 2020 matchups. … The Quinnipiac poll was the […] Read more »
Is there still time for a candidate to surge?
The Democratic presidential field is getting easier to sort into categories. There are the 10 candidates who made the September debate and the 10 candidates who didn’t. There are the candidates who want to talk about poll numbers and the candidates who say that polling in a Democratic primary has […] Read more »
Two Polling Methods, Two Views of Trump’s 2020 Re-election Chances
There are two major theories about President Trump’s standing heading into his re-election campaign. Over the last few months, they have found backing from two very different kinds of polls. One theory holds that Mr. Trump is fundamentally like any other president. This would be good news for his chances […] Read more »
How can we be smarter about horse race polls?
Much of what is wrong with political polling occurs at the nexus between the firms that produce the surveys and the media industry. It is worth bearing that in mind as we approach the October 2019 federal election campaign, in which opinion polling will be more central than ever to […] Read more »
Voters predict Trump’s re-election, but less than a third would be happy
Most Republicans are supportive of President Donald Trump’s influence on the party and the GOP’s move toward populism, and they are happily optimistic that he will win re-election in 2020, according to the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times national poll. And while the vast majority of Democrat-affiliated voters would be […] Read more »