The Democratic presidential field is getting easier to sort into categories. There are the 10 candidates who made the September debate and the 10 candidates who didn’t. There are the candidates who want to talk about poll numbers and the candidates who say that polling in a Democratic primary has often led the media astray. …
Is there still time for a breakout? Have candidates leading at this point gone on to fumble the nomination away? Now that Democratic primary polling is pushing candidates out of the race — and after a week when one outlier Monmouth poll generated tons of coverage — it’s worth looking at what the mess of polling has been able to tell us and what it’s gotten wrong, based on every primary race since 1999. CONT.
David Weigel, Washington Post
Polls: Presidential preference