This poll tells a story of Elizabeth Warren rising. But not Joe Biden falling. The former vice president now clings to a narrow lead over Warren in our CBS News/YouGov Tracker estimate of convention delegates – the only count that ultimately matters – with an estimated 600 delegates of all […] Read more »
House Ratings Changes: NC-9 do-over election going down to the wire; MN-7 moves to top tier of GOP targets
Key Points• We’re moving the NC-9 special from Leans Republican to Toss-up with less than a week to go until the election. A confluence of factors makes the race too close and unpredictable for us to call. • We’re also moving the NC-3 special election from Safe Republican to Likely […] Read more »
The fight for the Senate grows more interesting
Increased concern about the likelihood of an economic slowdown, new questions about President Donald Trump’s standing with voters, and a special election in Georgia certainly give Democrats some reason for optimism about next year’s fight for the Senate. But while the Senate map surely is better for Democrats in 2020 […] Read more »
How To Handle An Outlier Poll
It’s pretty rare that a pollster calls his own survey an “outlier.” But that’s exactly what happened last week after a Monmouth University poll showed an approximate three-way tie between Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute — an A-plus-rated pollster […] Read more »
The Senate suddenly looks like it’s up for grabs in 2020
This week the 2020 Senate landscape grew a bit more interesting as Georgia’s Johnny Isakson announced he was resigning at the end of the year. That put another Republican-held seat on the battleground list — the second one in Georgia — and added more evidence that control for the upper […] Read more »
The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years. Here’s why.
In a politically divided nation, with attitudes among many voters hardened and resistant to changing, the 2020 general election could be contested on the narrowest electoral terrain in recent memory. Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in 2020. Each flipped to the Republicans in 2016, but President […] Read more »