One thing on which strategists in both parties agree is that next month’s elections will feature a very high turnout level, a continuation of the last two cycles: 2018 featured the largest midterm turnout in 104 years, 2020 the biggest presidential turnout in 120 years. In recent elections it’s become […] Read more »
Upset Alert: Where to look out for surprising results; rating changes in Senate, House, and gubernatorial races
Key Points• As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans.• That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs.• We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s issue, ranging from Senate races in […] Read more »
GOP keeps lead for House control, Democrats’ momentum stalls amid economy worries
For two months the Democrats chipped away at the Republicans’ lead in the battle for House control, helped by motivated abortion-rights voters and what turned out to be fleeting glimmers of optimism about the economy. But that momentum has stalled, at least for now, and the Republicans’ House lead has […] Read more »
2022 Puts the Idiosyncrasies of the Senate on Full Display
A diagram of the direction of the 2022 campaign would look like a zigzag. Democrats faced near gale-force headwinds into June, but that moderated considerably in the first half of the summer, with the most optimistic of Democrats having visions of retaining majorities in both the House and the Senate. […] Read more »
Polls almost always move toward Republicans in the fall
There’s little surprise so far in October. According to social media, half the world spent the weekend at a pumpkin patch, and the other half spent it debating the merits of Christopher Columbus. The usual schools lead the college football rankings. And political coverage is telling you that “the polls […] Read more »
Biden is unpopular, but Democrats lead 2022 polls. What gives?
Joe Biden is underwater: 45 percent of voters approve of his job performance as president while 52 percent disapprove, adding up to a net approval rating of negative seven percentage points. Yet Biden isn’t sinking Democratic congressional candidates — they lead Republicans in national House polls by one point. These […] Read more »