Joe Biden is underwater: 45 percent of voters approve of his job performance as president while 52 percent disapprove, adding up to a net approval rating of negative seven percentage points. Yet Biden isn’t sinking Democratic congressional candidates — they lead Republicans in national House polls by one point.
These numbers, taken from FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, are confusing. Historically, when voters dislike a president, they vent their frustration by voting against his party in Congress. Yet the best measure of whether voters like Biden — his approval rating — seems utterly unrelated to how well House Democrats are polling in the midterm elections.
So, to resolve this conundrum, I tracked what factors led to increases and decreases in Biden’s presidential approval rating, and what events led to changes in national House polls. CONTINUED
David Byler, Washington Post
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