Key Points• It will take some time to assess any possible fallout from the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday night. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) very clearly struggled.• Early voting has begun in our pair of Senate Toss-ups, Georgia and Nevada, with inconclusive signals.• Democrats should be more worried about […] Read more »
Why Pennsylvania’s race could determine who wins the Senate
Tell me who wins the Pennsylvania Senate race, and I’ll probably be able to tell you who controls the Senate next year. Such a declarative statement may seem like hyperbole, but the stakes after Tuesday’s debate in Pennsylvania – which represents Democrats’ best chance of picking up a Republican seat […] Read more »
Fundamentals Favor Republicans
For much of this cycle, the question has been whether Democrats would be able to defy the traditional midterm fundamentals and make the 2022 election a ‘choice’ instead of a ‘referendum’ on the president and his party. … But, with less than two weeks until Election Day, it looks as […] Read more »
The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field
Key Points• We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings.• A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans.• […] Read more »
Too close to call? When is a dead heat really a dead heat?
The headline in the Washington Post Metro section on Oct. 22 was clear: “Poll shows Luria, Kiggans in dead heat in final leg of crucial race.” … My immediate take was that, based solely on the poll’s ballot test, Luria is an underdog and in deep trouble. That’s because at […] Read more »
The fundamentals and the midterm
The current conventional wisdom is for the midterm to be somewhat better than average for the president’s party in the House. (I set aside the Senate here.) The fundamentals doubt that, as we’ll see. The “fundamentals” provide a helpful baseline, even if “non-fundamentals” such as polling, candidate quality, unique issues, […] Read more »