Join data columnist David Byler for a look under the hood of the Post Opinions Simulator and the 2020 Democratic primary model that powers it. … Join David at Jan. 9 at 12 p.m. for a deep dive on numbers and the upcoming presidential election, and an exploration of what […] Read more »
Understanding the precarious, uncertain position of the Democratic primaries right now
One’s confidence in predicting what’s likely to happen in the contest for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination correlates neatly with how closely one is looking at it. In the abstract, it seems like a mess, with a field of more than two dozen trimmed down only partially and a leading […] Read more »
What Decades Of Primary Polls Tell Us About The 2020 Democratic Presidential Race
… Early national polls conducted in the year before the first nominating contests do have predictive value, but remember there isn’t one national primary. Instead, parties choose presidential nominees via state-by-state elections over the course of a few months. And that sequential nature of the primary makes it hard for […] Read more »
Political fallout from Soleimani could be biggest for Senate
President Donald Trump ordered the killing of Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani, and it was rightfully treated as a big deal. But as with breaking news of any size and scope, it’s best to pause before determining the political fallout. While most of the subsequent conversation revolves around potential future […] Read more »
It’s not just the polls that show Biden and Sanders leading the primary
We have less than a month until the primary season, and it’s becoming more apparent that former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont are the candidates to beat. It’s not just that they are Nos. 1 and 2 in the national polling. It’s that each holds […] Read more »
With A Month To Go Before Iowa And New Hampshire, Anything Can Happen
Democrats all want one thing: to beat Donald Trump. The problem is, they can’t agree on who’s best to do that. … So what’s the state of play a month out? How predictive are Iowa and New Hampshire for who becomes the Democratic nominee? And should we even pay attention […] Read more »