Joe Biden is the most likely person to win a majority of pledged Democratic delegates, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary model, which we launched on Thursday morning. … But saying the former vice president is the front-runner doesn’t really tell the whole story. He may be the most likely nominee, […] Read more »
Incumbent presidents usually get more popular when they run for reelection. Will Trump?
On its face, President Trump should have a pretty solid chance of reelection. He is an incumbent, and incumbents have a real advantage in presidential elections. Moreover, many economic indicators are positive. Last month, for example, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment showed that Americans were more positive […] Read more »
How Our Primary Model Works
Here at FiveThirtyEight, we’ve never built a complete back-to-front model of the presidential primaries before. Instead, in 2008, 2012 and 2016, we issued forecasts of individual primaries and caucuses on piecemeal basis, using polls and demographics. We always thought there were too many complexities involved — how the outcome in […] Read more »
The Electoral College: Maine and Nebraska’s Crucial Battleground Votes
Key Points • Nationalization has pushed urban and rural areas apart; Maine and Nebraska are no exceptions to this trend, and their unique electoral vote allocation systems are highlighting that division. • The Omaha-based NE-2 supported Republicans in the past two presidential elections, but by decreasing margins, and could feasibly […] Read more »
Republican Edge in Electoral College Tie Endures
The possibility that the Electoral College could split 269-269 is remote, but possible. … We looked at the GOP edge in the event of a tie about a year ago, and we thought we’d update our outlook at the dawn of the election year. There have been some subtle changes, […] Read more »
If Democrats nominate a woman for president, don’t try to make predictions about how she’ll do
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton arrives onstage during a primary night rally at the Duggal Greenhouse in the Brooklyn Navy Yard, June 7, 2016. Getty/ Drew Angerer Nathaniel Swigger, The Ohio State University Four women remain out of an original six in the Democratic primary for president: Sens. Elizabeth Warren […] Read more »