The latest polling in Iowa shows a tight, four-way race just three weeks away from caucus day. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew updates their thinking about who is likely to win there, and about how a win in Iowa could affect the rest of the […] Read more »
Another new poll makes clear what will happen in Iowa: No one knows
… Over the past several days, two major polls of Iowa have been released. At a glance, they seem to offer starkly different pictures of what’s likely to happen in next month’s caucuses. A poll from CNN, the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, conducted by Selzer & Co., has Sen. […] Read more »
If Joe Biden wins Iowa, ‘he’s off to the races’
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver shares his big takeaways from the FiveThirtyEight Democratic primary forecast. This Week, ABC News Read more »
Election Update: Sanders Now Leads A Wide-Open Iowa Race
Welcome to your first FiveThirtyEight Election Update of the 2020 primary cycle! This is a column in which we’ll talk about the primary race through the lens of our forecast model, which we released earlier this week. … We don’t necessarily plan to publish an Election Update as a result […] Read more »
It’s Wide Open Going into Iowa
… The Democratic race has been frozen in place by the holidays, without many meaningful developments since the Dec. 19 debate. But don’t let the recent lack of movement fool you; this is the most wide-open contest for the Democratic presidential nomination in modern history. CONT. Charlie Cook Read more »
And Then There Were Five…
In our first episode of 2020, we preview the seventh Democratic primary debate. Plus, we discuss the role endorsements and fundraising play in predicting the ultimate primary winner, and how the developing situation in Iran might influence the 2020 race. The Forecast Fest Read more »