… Hillary Clinton’s showing in Iowa reflected a unique weakness, and Democrats have a chance to nominate someone who doesn’t have her baggage, which would improve their prospects in the state. But Trump’s margin was substantial, and Democrats would need to bring out voters who stayed home in 2016 and […] Read more »
What Polling Tells Us About Bernie Sanders’s Chances
At this point in 2016, Bernie Sanders was competitive in Iowa but had no clear path to the nomination. Four years later, he finds himself in an enviable position: rising in the polls, enjoying the most resources, and facing relatively few attacks from his campaign rivals. CONT. Nate Cohn, New […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Oh, Iowa!
It’s feast or famine! A bunch of new Iowa polls have been released, but their results greatly differ. Why, and can we accurately get a sense of where the Iowa contest stands? We pick up those questions on Poll Hub. But, first, Tuesday was the last chance Iowa caucus-goers had […] Read more »
Knowns & Unknowns: Hunting Black Swans in the Age of Disruption
Political prognostication, by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. CONT. — pdf Read more »
Don’t Believe the Washington CW: Trump is no Shoo-In for Reelection
In less than 10 months, Americans will be heading to the polls to decide whether Donald Trump deserves a second term in the White House — assuming that he survives an impeachment trial in the Senate, as appears likely to be the case. Despite his chronically low approval ratings and […] Read more »
Here’s How the Democratic Race Could Change Between Today and Iowa
The Iowa caucuses are three weeks away. It’s worth taking a look at recent history to get a sense of how fluid the dynamic is in this period before live voters show up. The answer is: It depends. I looked at polling numbers three weeks out from the 2016, 2012, […] Read more »