Before an election the media closely follows polls. Rob Crandall/Shutterstock.com Daniel R. Birdsong, University of Dayton Public opinion polls are ingrained in American politics. It seems like every day there is a new poll about the presidential election or impeachment or whether the public feels that the United States is […] Read more »
The 2016 Electoral College Map: A Template for 2020
Key Points • In 2016, Hillary Clinton would have needed to flip 38 additional Electoral College votes to reach 270, thereby winning a majority in the Electoral College.• Using 2016 presidential election results, we can map out the different paths that Clinton had to winning 270 electoral votes. These routes […] Read more »
New Year’s Irresolutions and the Democratic Field
This post gives my end of the year thoughts on the Democratic field. I am writing it so we can all look back in a few months and see how wrong it was, and, indeed, many factors provide uncertainty about what the next few months will bring. Certainly many of […] Read more »
Trump Will Win Again. No Way He’ll Win. Be Wary Of 2020 Election Predictions
Don’t put too much stock in all those New Year’s predictions you’re hearing and seeing about American politics in 2020. Anyone saying they know what will happen is probably just trying to get our attention. And probably succeeding. We’ve all fallen for headlines and clickbait proclaiming foreknowledge of events. We […] Read more »
These two candidates are best positioned to be this election’s ‘Iowa cyclone’
Want to know who will win the Iowa Democratic caucuses in five weeks? Don’t look to the current polls: Look for this election’s Iowa cyclone. An “Iowa cyclone” — the name is derived from the nickname of Iowa State University’s athletic teams — is a candidate who rises dramatically in […] Read more »
Who will win the 2020 presidential election? Don’t ask
Ten months ago, I gave readers of this column an early preview of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Keep an eye on the new faces, I sagely advised: Sens. Kamala Harris of California, Cory Booker of New Jersey, and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, plus former Rep. Beto O’Rourke […] Read more »