“Trust the polls” is the soothing mantra of the data nerd. While polls are snapshots of public opinion at a specific time, and they are fallible, in most circumstances, they represent the best picture of what America is thinking and are the most powerful predictor of eventual election results. But […] Read more »
Some Questions Already Seem Answered About Super Tuesday
It’s hard to remember an Election Day with so much uncertainty as voters go to the polls. And yet Joe Biden’s blowout win in South Carolina on Saturday — and subsequent steps toward consolidating the Democratic Party’s moderate wing — may have already answered many of the biggest questions about […] Read more »
Is Bernie Sanders winning or losing?
A week ago, after CBS News and NBC News/Marist polls showed former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in South Carolina shrinking to the mid-single digits, it appeared that Sen. Bernie Sanders was about to get another boost in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. … But after Saturday’s results […] Read more »
Buttigieg’s exit is better for Biden than Sanders
Pete Buttigieg’s exit from the presidential race adds another wrinkle to the Democratic contest ahead of Super Tuesday. The exact effects of the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor’s departure, along with Joe Biden’s blowout victory in South Carolina, are unknowable. Still, it’s pretty clear that Buttigieg getting out likely helps […] Read more »
Don’t buy into Joe Biden’s momentum
Former vice president Joe Biden’s stunningly large victory in South Carolina on Saturday will give his campaign much-needed energy going into Super Tuesday. That doesn’t mean he has supplanted Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) as the front-runner. Biden’s win was more a feature of demographics than a serious comeback. South Carolina […] Read more »
Why South Carolina matters for Super Tuesday
… Biden comes out of South Carolina with a head of steam. He scored nearly 50% of the vote and won by nearly 30 points. CNN’s polling demonstrates that if Biden’s going to stay competitive with Sanders beyond South Carolina, he’s going to need a big and fast bounce out […] Read more »