Saturday was Joe Biden’s first-ever win in a presidential primary or caucus. It was an awfully big one: Biden won South Carolina by nearly 30 percentage points over Bernie Sanders. And it made for one heck of a comeback: Biden’s lead over Sanders had fallen to as little as 2 […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Sanders knocks Biden out of first, majority thinks Trump wins
Bernie Sanders pushes Joe Biden out of the frontrunner spot for the Democratic nomination, capturing a record 31 percent support among primary voters in a new Fox News Poll. This is the first 2020 Fox national poll that finds Biden not leading the Democratic race. … Among all voters, all […] Read more »
The Sanders Tax: How our Electoral College ratings might change if he becomes the presumptive nominee
Key Points• If Democrats nominated Bernie Sanders, they would, initially, start off with somewhat of a penalty in our Electoral College ratings.• Sanders’ policy prescriptions and rhetoric may complicate Democratic prospects in the Sun Belt, where the party’s recent growth has been driven by highly-educated suburbanites.• Given the composition of […] Read more »
Some candidates do better than the polls and others worse. We break it down.
Pre-election polls are more important this primary election cycle than ever before. Last week, Michael Bloomberg was given a place on the debate stage in Las Vegas because of his rising support in pre-election polls. Polls provide more than just interesting talking points — they can have direct consequences for […] Read more »
If Democrats Aren’t Terrified of Bernie, They’re Not Paying Attention
… At the heart of Sanders’s campaign is a hard-core socialist vanguard which is indifferent to the Democratic Party except as a potential vessel for the Bernie revolution. Their calculation is perfectly rational. Even if Sanders is likely to lose, the small chance of success is worth the risk to […] Read more »
Trump’s 2020 position is improving
… The Democratic presidential primary is holding most of the attention in the electoral world right now. Democratic primary voters desperately want to beat Trump. The latest data shows, however, that defeating the President won’t be easy. Trump’s approval rating is going up at the right time. As I noted […] Read more »