In one of the most revealing studies in recent years, a 2016 survey of 137,456 full-time, first-year students at 184 colleges and universities in the United States, the U.C.L.A. Higher Education Research Institute found “the largest-ever gender gap in terms of political leanings: 41.1 percent of women, an all-time high, […] Read more »
Why Republicans aren’t likely to lose any Senate seats in 2022
Wisconsin’s Republican Sen. Ron Johnson announced he was running for reelection on Sunday. That should be viewed as good news by Republicans, who need a net gain of just one seat in this year’s midterm elections to wrestle Senate control from the Democrats. While we don’t know what the outcome […] Read more »
Failure and success in political polling and election forecasting
… The recent successes and failures of pre-election polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that the polls sometimes do so well? Should we be concerned about political biases of pollsters who themselves are part of the educated […] Read more »
Controversy Over the Term ‘Latinx’: Public Opinion Context
Labels matter, and nowhere have we seen this exemplified more throughout the centuries than in controversies over names used to describe racial and ethnic groups. … One of the central threads in critiques of the use of “Latinx” is evidence measuring the opinions of rank-and-file Hispanic Americans themselves. These data […] Read more »
The Dissipating Political Impact of Jan. 6
Key Points• A recurring theme during Donald Trump’s presidency was the emergence of seemingly very negative and very damaging stories that ultimately did not appear to do him long-term harm.• It may be that Jan. 6, when Trump’s unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020 election galvanized a crowd of […] Read more »
Why Isn’t Biden’s Expanded Child Tax Credit More Popular?
… While polls about last year’s expanded credit found it to be popular on net — most showed it with approval in the 50s — it lagged the popularity of lowering costs for prescription drugs, expanding Medicare and other policies Democrats are seeking to pass. As the party continues to […] Read more »