… As a professional pollster, my advice to the nerve-wracked polling junkie is simple: Take a deep breath, embrace the uncertainty and go beneath the surface of the polls to better understand the dynamics this year. It’s true that my industry has struggled at times to accurately gauge public opinion, […] Read more »
Are the Polls Giving Dems False Hope Again?
… Polling is the lifeblood of politics. It drives press coverage and campaign decision-making. But what if polling is fundamentally broken? What if we are viewing politics through a fun house mirror? … Is the recent burst of Democratic optimism another case of inaccurate poll-fueled naivete? No. While polls may […] Read more »
Why high inflation doesn’t seem to be hurting Democrats
… Every month, Gallup publishes data on what Americans say is the most important problem facing the country. It’s an open-ended question (meaning respondents can say anything they want), and they’re allowed to give more than one answer. In August, 37% of adults said that an economic problem was most […] Read more »
The political numbers that explain the Abbott and DeSantis migrant decisions
Republican governors like Greg Abbott of Texas, and more recently Florida’s Ron DeSantis, have been making a habit of sending migrants located in their Sun Belt states to northern Democratic-voting cities. While there may be policy reasons for their decisions, there are clear political considerations as well. Both men, especially […] Read more »
High Floors + Low Ceilings = Tight Races
Don’t be surprised between now and the midterm elections to see most independent political prognosticators being unusually cautious in their pronouncements (those in the partisan cheerleading roles will exhibit their predictable responses). After all, the trajectory of this campaign has already departed that of any midterm election in modern times. […] Read more »
Changing fundamentals boost Democrats
Democrats’ electoral prospects improved in recent months as a function of several developments, including the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization abortion decision and Democratic legislative successes. Some have taken the improvement as a sign that “fundamentals” no longer count. A careful sifting of the evidence suggests, on […] Read more »