With just over a month until the midterm elections, those paying attention to politics will see an increasing flurry of polling centered on individual contests or the broad trend of views of President Biden and how people plan to vote in House races. … Having already suffered 13 bouts of […] Read more »
Abortion impact on elections
Issues are the accepted language of political campaigning. But rarely, if ever, has a single issue so transformed the political landscape in the weeks before an election as abortion seems to have done this year. In a country that generally supports abortion rights but has long been falsely confident that […] Read more »
Are Political Winds Blowing in Republicans’ Favor Again?
For most of the summer, President Biden and the Democrats had the political winds at their backs. They saw their poll numbers rise as gas prices fell, as the Supreme Court refocused voters on abortion, and as the Jan. 6 hearings and the investigation into Donald J. Trump’s handling of […] Read more »
Why we can’t figure out the Hispanic vote
Hispanic voters could easily be the x-factor that determines whether Democrats or Republicans hold Congress in November. In 2020, a rightward shift among some Hispanics—most notably in South Texas and Florida—resulted in a few surprise congressional wins for Republicans and stronger-than-expected support for then-President Trump. In general, the 2020 trend […] Read more »
4 charts that show the GOP’s 2022 popularity gap
A month ago, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said out loud what many Republicans were undoubtedly feeling. Effectively, the message was: We’ve got a shot at a good 2022 midterm election, but some of these Trump candidates could screw it all up for us. At the time, there was […] Read more »
Why Stacey Abrams is a clear underdog in Georgia
The 2022 elections are, so far, shaping up to be better than Democrats had imagined. They’re now favored to hold the Senate, and they appear likely to keep their losses in the House below the historical midterm average for the party that controls the White House. They also seem to […] Read more »