Mitt Romney received no bounce from last week’s Republican National Convention, as the 46% of registered voters who supported him in Aug. 31-Sept. 3 Daily tracking is essentially the same as the 47% who preferred him in Aug. 24-27 tracking, the four days preceding the convention. The lack of a […] Read more »
Split Verdict in Polls on Romney Convention Bounce
My view is that the consensus of evidence so far points toward Mitt Romney having received a small bounce in the polls of perhaps two or three percentage points from the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla. Oddly enough, however, you can’t really find a poll that seems to reflect a […] Read more »
No Signs of GOP Convention Bounce Yet
… We have been monitoring the potential impact of the Republican convention on the presidential race on a day-by-day basis. So far, we don’t see an impact. … We do have some new data that reinforce the tentative conclusion that the Republican convention did not change the race. The results, […] Read more »
TV Ratings May Be Leading Indicator of Convention Bounce
It remains too early to tell exactly what effect the Republican National Convention has had on the polls. But television ratings are one measure that come in almost instantaneously. … In the chart below, I’ve compared the historical TV ratings for the challenging party’s convention against the bounce that its […] Read more »
How to Read Post-Convention Polls: It’s Not Just About The Biggest Bounce
The post-convention polls are just a few days away and reporters are gearing up to see whether Obama or Romney will earn the biggest bounce. But while most will judge the bounces relative to historic expectations, there’s another metric to pay attention to: the share of the popular vote that […] Read more »
Measuring a Convention Bounce
Polling generally becomes more accurate as you get closer to Election Day. The exception to the rule is in the period immediately after the party conventions, when the polls can be a wild ride. In some past elections, candidates have received as much as a 25-percentage-point lift in the polls […] Read more »