… Christie certainly got my attention when he mentioned polls in his speech on Tuesday night. Here’s what he said: “There’s only one thing missing now. Leadership. It takes leadership that you don’t get from reading a poll. You see, Mr. President — real leaders don’t follow polls. Real leaders […] Read more »
Since 1952, Pre-Convention Leader Has Won 12 of 15 Elections
As the 2012 presidential conventions get underway in Tampa, Fla., a Gallup analysis of 15 elections from 1952 to 2008 shows that in all but three instances — 1988, 1992, and 2004 — the candidate leading in the Gallup poll conducted just prior to the first convention (the “pre-convention poll”) […] Read more »
How Will Party Conventions Affect the Presidential Race?
The Republican and Democratic national conventions bring the possibility of change to this static presidential race. But how will it change, and how much? Here is some of what we know. [cont.] John Sides, George Washington U. (NYT) Read more »
Why the next two weeks may be make-or-break for Romney-Ryan
We have reached the third and will quickly being heading into the fourth quarter of presidential contest. On Monday, Republicans will gather in Tampa, Florida for a week’s festivities culminating in the acceptance of the nomination for president by Mitt Romney. So, as convention season approaches, just where do we […] Read more »
How to Read the Polls
In every presidential cycle, there is a debate about partisan identification in polling. Conservatives complain about too few Republicans being sampled; pollsters, journalists, and liberals respond by saying it is inappropriate to weigh polls by party identification. What to make of all this? [cont.] Jay Cost, Weekly Standard Read more »
Questioningly Winner: A Poll Question for America
“On a scale of -1 to pi . . .” [cont.] Ben Greenman, The New Yorker Read more »