On Friday, we began to see reasonably clear signs that President Obama would receive some kind of bounce in the polls from the Democratic convention. Mr. Obama had another strong day in the polls on Saturday, making further gains in each of four national tracking polls. The question now is […] Read more »
A Tenuous Advantage for Obama
The back-to-back national party conventions sharpened the arguments of President Obama and Mitt Romney, but they probably did little to reshape the dynamics of a razor-thin race that has demonstrated remarkable stability for months. After the marathon of speeches, videos, wall-to-wall coverage, and the occasional snafu, most analysts believe the […] Read more »
Obama Campaign Shared ’08 Polling With Silver
Obama’s polling analysts, [Sasha] Issenberg writes, wanted to test their internal polls against [Nate] Silver’s model. And so — in an unusual step for the closely-held campaign, and for the analyst, who was then running his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com — the Obama campaign offered Silver access to thousands of its […] Read more »
The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite
… [O]ur forecast has moved toward Barack Obama over the past several days. It now gives him about a three-in-four chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6. I’ll explain a little bit more about how the model comes to that conclusion in a moment, but the intuition behind […] Read more »
Did Mitt Romney get a bounce in the polls out of the RNC?
The Republican National Convention has come and gone. Besides wondering whether Invisible Obama could be a metal, plastic or wooden chair, it has left us with the bigger question of whether or not Mitt Romney has received a bounce thanks to the convention. [cont.] Harry Enten, The Guardian Read more »
Did Romney get a convention bounce?
It’s the question everyone’s asking: Did Mitt Romney get a bounce out of last week’s Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida? According to a new national poll released Tuesday, just before the start of the Democratic convention, the GOP presidential nominee appears to have received a one-point convention bounce, normal […] Read more »