The latest Gallup tracking data show that Barack Obama now leads Mitt Romney by one percentage point, 47% to 46% among registered voters, where the race was on Aug. 31-Sept. 3, before the Democratic Convention began. … It appears now that the Democratic convention was successful in boosting Obama’s standing […] Read more »
Rasmussen: The GOP’s cure for the common poll
… Even as other pollsters — Gallup, Fox News, CBS News/New York Times, Washington Post/ABC News — have shown the presidential race tilting toward President Obama in recent days, Romney aides and allied Republicans proudly tout the newest Rasmussen numbers, which show their guy actually holding a very small lead: […] Read more »
Party ID and Ideology Breakdowns
Over the course of the next several weeks, there will be many national and state surveys released. In order to help people make sense of this data, we have compiled party identification and ideology results from exit polls in recent elections. [cont.] Stephanie Slade, Winston Group Read more »
Why weighting polls for party identification is wishful thinking
Those who follow my writing know that I am not a fan of weighting polls to a predetermined party identification (ID). The reason is that questions on party ID can be skewed by question ordering and political environment. … Some Republicans have been up in arms this year over what […] Read more »
Will Obama win in November? Wide gap between preference and prediction.
National polling suggests that the American public is deeply divided about who it wants to be the next president of the United States. … But, if the pool of likely voters is almost evenly split on who should occupy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in January, they are far less indecisive on […] Read more »
New Frontiers In Polling
A program of NDI’s International Leaders Forum. Featuring Peter Hart, Jon Cohen, Whit Ayres and Stan Greenberg. Moderated by Katty Kay. Filmed at the Belk Theater in Charlotte, NC, on Sept. 5, 2012. National Democratic Institute Read more »