… Once upon a time, polls came and went without much fanfare or even notice. That time is gone. Today, a good portion of Americans plan their lives—or at least their Twitter feeds—around the latest political numbers. [cont.] Jason Zengerle, New York Magazine Read more »
When it comes to polls, readers beware
As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican […] Read more »
Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias
Presidential elections are high-stakes affairs. So perhaps it is no surprise that when supporters of one candidate do not like the message they are hearing from the polls they tend to blame the messenger. In 2004, Democratic Web sites were convinced that the polls were biased toward George W. Bush, […] Read more »
Nate Silver: The polls aren’t wrong
We are drowning in polls and predictions. Whether it’s politics, sports, economics or even the weather, there’s more information and data than ever. But how much of it is white noise? How many of these predictions have rigor and mathematics behind them, and how many mask uncertainty or ideology behind […] Read more »
Can the Polls Be Trusted?
Here are some polling questions you’re not likely to be asked the next time the kitchen phone rings: Do you trust political polls or think they’re skewed for partisan gain? And how much time during this final stretch of the election do you plan to spend digging through the minutiae […] Read more »
Rand poll tries something different, gets same results: Obama leading
… The Rand Corp. is trying something quite different this year. And part of what’s interesting is that the results are pretty much the same as everybody else’s. Rand’s 2012 Presidential Election Poll involves a single panel of voters who are asked the same three questions over and over. Since […] Read more »